[BITList] The Future The Exponential Age

[FA]

> *The Exponential Age*?!
>
> Just a few things for us all to ponder, especially the younger ones 
> amongst us….
>
> Did you think back in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take 
> pictures on film again?
>
> In 1998 Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85 % photo paper 
> worldwide. Within just a few years their business model disappeared 
> and they went bankrupt. What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of 
> industries in the next 10 years and, most people  won't see it coming.
>
> Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 
> 10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law.  So as with all exponential 
> technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became way 
> superior and became mainstream in only a few short years. It will now 
> happen  again with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous and  
> electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.  Welcome 
> to the  4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to the Exponential Age.
>
> /Software/ will disrupt most traditional industries in the 
> next 5-10 years.
>
> /Uber /is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now 
> the biggest taxi company in the  world.
>
> /Airbnb/ is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they 
> don't own any properties.
>
> /Artificial Intelligence/:  Computers become exponentially better in 
> understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go-player 
> in the world, 10 years  earlier than expected.
>
> In the US , young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of 
> IBM's Watson you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic 
> stuff) within seconds. With 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy 
> when done by humans.
>
> /Lawyers/:  So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90 % 
> less lawyers in the future. Only specialists will remain.
>
> Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer,  which is 4 times more 
> accurate than human nurses.
>
> /Facebook/ now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize 
> faces better than humans. In 2030 computers will become more 
> intelligent than humans. (NEVER says Albert)
>
> /Autonomous cars/: In 2018  the first self-driving cars will appear 
> for the public. Around 2020 the complete industry will  start to be 
> disrupted. You won't want to own a car anymore.  You will call a car 
> with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to 
> your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the 
> driven distance and can be productive while being driven.
>
> Our kids will never get a  driver's licence and will never own a car.
>
> It will change the cities,  because we will need 90-95% less cars for 
> that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks.
>
> 1.2  million people die each  year in car accidents worldwide. We now 
> have one accident every 60,000 miles  ( 100,000  km), with autonomous 
> driving that will drop to 1 accident in 6 million miles (10 million 
> km). That will save a   million  lives each  year.
>
> /Most car/companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car 
> companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, 
> while tech companies like Tesla, Apple, Google will do the 
> revolutionary approach and build a computer on  wheels.
>
> Many engineers from  Volkswagen and Audi are completely terrified of 
> Tesla.
>
> /Insurance companies/  will have massive trouble  because without 
> accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance 
> business model will disappear.
>
> /Real Estate/ will change.  Because if you can work while you commute, 
> people  will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighbourhood.
>
> /Electric cars/will become  mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less 
> noisy  because all new cars will run on electricity.
>
> Electricity will become  incredibly cheap and clean. Solar production 
> has been  on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see 
> the burgeoning impact.
>
> Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.  
> Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to 
> prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't 
> last.  Technology will take care of that strategy.
>
> With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water.   Desalination 
> of salt water now only needs 2k Wh per cubic meter at 0.25 cents). We 
> don't have  scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking 
> water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean 
> water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
>
> /Health/: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are 
> companies who will build a medical device (called the " Tricorder " 
> from Star Trek) that works  with your phone, which takes your retina 
> scan, your blood sample  and you simply  breath into it.
>
> It then analyses 54 bio-markers  that will identify nearly  
> any   disease.  It will be cheap, so in a  few years everyone on this 
> planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for 
> free. Goodbye medical  establishments.
>
> /3 D printing/: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from  
> $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times 
> faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing  shoes.
>
> Some spare airplane parts  are already 3D printed in remote airports. 
> The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the 
> large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
>
> At the end of this year, new  smart phones will have 3D scanning 
> possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print  your perfect 
> shoe at home.
>
> In China they have already 3D printed and built a complete 6 storey 
> office building.  By 2027 10% of everything that's being produced will 
> be 3D printed.
>
> /Business Opportunities/: If you think of a niche you want to go in, 
> first ask yourself, "In the future, do I think we will have that?" If 
> the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner? If it doesn't 
> work with your phone, forget the idea.  And any idea designed for 
> success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.
>
> /Work/:   70-80 % of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There 
> will be a lot  of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be 
> enough new  jobs in such a short time.  This will require a rethink on 
> wealth distribution.
>
> /Agriculture:/There will be a $100  agricultural robot in the future.  
> Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field 
> instead of working all day on their  fields.
>
> /Aeroponics/: Will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced 
> veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal 
> in 2018. Right now, 30 % of all agricultural surfaces is used for 
> cows.  Imagine if we don't need that space  anymore.
>
> /The Times They Are A Changing!///
>

	
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