[BITList] interesting predictions
FA
franka at iinet.net.au
Wed Jun 1 17:43:14 BST 2016
Makes you think!!
*/"A lie doesn't become truth, a wrong doesn't become right/*
*/and evil doesn't become good/*
*/just because it's accepted by a majority"./*
*//*
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and sold 85% of all photo paper
worldwide.
>>Within just a few years, their business model disappeared and they
went bankrupt.
>>What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot of industries in the next
10 years - and most people don't see it coming.
>>Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later you would never take pictures
on paper film again?
>>Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had
10,000 pixels, but followed Moore's law.
>>So as with all exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a
long time, before it became way superior and got mainstream in
only a
few short years.
>>It will now happen with Artificial Intelligence, health, autonomous
and electric cars, education, 3D printing, agriculture and jobs.
>>Welcome to the 4th Industrial Revolution.
Welcome to the Exponential Age.
Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next
5-10 years...
>>Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the
biggest taxi company in the world.
>>Airbnb, Worldwide Accommodations Leader, is now the biggest hotel
company in the world, although they don't own any properties.
>>Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in
understanding the world.
>>This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years
earlier than expected.
>>In the US, young lawyers already aren't getting jobs. Because of IBM
Watson, you can get legal advice (for more or less the basic stuff)
within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy
when done
by humans.
>>There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only the specialists
will remain.
>>Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 time more accurate
than human nurses.
>>Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize
faces better than humans.
>>In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans, most
are already.
>>Autonomous cars: In 2020 the first self driving cars will appear for the
public.
>Around 2025, the complete industry will start to be disrupted.
You won't want to own a car anymore.
You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your
location
and drive you to your destination.
You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven
distance and
can be productive while driving.
>>Our kids may never get a driver's license, and may never own a car,
except for off-road sports or vintage purposes.
>>It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars
for that.
>>We can transform former parking space into parks. 1.2 million people
die each year in car accidents worldwide.
>>>We now have one accident every 100,000 km, with autonomous driving
that will drop to one accident in 10 million km.
That will save a million lives each year.
>>Most car companies might soon become bankrupt.
>>>Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build
a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will
do the
revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.
>>Some Engineers from Volkswagen and Audi have said, they're completely
terrified of Tesla.
>>Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without
accidents, the insurance will become 100x's cheaper.
Their car insurance business model will disappear.
>>>Real estate will change.
Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further
away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
>>Electric cars will become mainstream around 2025.
Cities will be less noisy because most cars will run electric.
>>Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production
has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can only now
see the impact.
>>Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil.
The price for solar will drop so much that almost all coal companies
will be out of business by 2030.
>>With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water.
Desalination now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter.
>>We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce
drinking water.
Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water
as he wants, for nearly no cost.
>>Health: The Tricorder-X has been said that it will be announced this
or next year.
>>There companies who'll build that medical device (think Doc McCoy's
from "Star Trek") that works with you phone, will take your retina
scan, your blood sample and you'll breath into it.
>>It will/would then analyze 54 bio-markers that will identify
nearly any disease.
It will be cheap, in a few years everyone on this planet will have
access to world class medicine, nearly for free.
>>3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from
$18,000. to $400. within the last 10 years.
In the same time, it became 100 times faster.
>>Most major shoe companies have started 3D printing shoes.
Spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports.
The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the
large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smartphones may have 3D scanning
possibilities.
You can then 3D scan your feet and be able to print your perfect
shoe at home.
In China, they've already 3D printed a complete 6-story office
building.
By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.
>>>Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask
yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and
if the
answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?
>>If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea.
>>And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is already being
doomed to failure in the 21st century.
>>Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years.
There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there
will be
enough new jobs in such a small time.
>>Agriculture: There will be a $100. agricultural robot in the future.
Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their
field
instead of working all days in their fields.
>>Aeroponics will need much less water.
>>The first petri dish produced veal is now available and will be
cheaper than calves produced veal in 2030.
>>Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cattle.
>>Imagine if we don't need that space anymore.
>>There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the
market shortly.
>>It contains more protein than meat.
It will be labeled as "alternative protein source" (because most
people still reject the idea of eating insects).
>>There is already an app called "Moodies" which can analyze which mood
you are in.
>>At this rate, by 2020, there will be apps that can tell by your
facial
expressions if you are lying.
>>Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they are
telling the truth and when not.
>>Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year.
>>Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years.
>>The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more that
one year increase per year.
>>So we all might live for a long, long time, probably way more
than 100.m
>>Education: The cheapest smartphones are already at $10. in Africa and Asia.
>>It's been forecast that by 2020, 70% of all humans will own a
smartphone.
>>That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.
>>Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child learns at
school in First World countries.
>>Already released software in Indonesia and will release it in Arabic,
Swahili, and Chinese this Summer, because of an enormous potential.
>>English app for free, so that children in Africa can become fluent in
English within half a year...
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