[BITList] 10 technologies that will change the world in the next 10 years

[David Harvey]

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http://www.arnnet.com.au/article/393824/10_technologies_will_change_world_next_10_years/
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 *10 technologies that will change the world in the next 10 years*****

The next 10 years should pack in far more technological change than the
last 10****

·                                 Julie
Bort<http://www.arnnet.com.au/author/1270224805/julie-bort/articles>(Network
World)
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·                                 16 July, 2011 03:45****

·
Comments<http://www.arnnet.com.au/article/393824/10_technologies_will_change_world_next_10_years/#comments>
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·                                  ****
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As computational power rises exponentially, not linearly, so does the rate
of change -- and that means the next 10 years should pack in far more
technological change than the last 10.****

Disruptive technology is, by its very nature, unpredictable, but it is
still possible to look at the work being done by R&D labs around the world
and see clues as to what the future holds. That's the full-time job of Dave
Evans, Cisco <http://www.networkworld.com/subnets/cisco/>'s chief futurist
and chief technologist for the Cisco Internet Business Solutions Group
(IBSG).****

At Cisco Live, Evans outlined what he believed to be the top 10 trends that
will change the world in 10 years. Here is his list, with commentary
augmented by yours truly based on interviews in the past year with numerous
other industry analysts and visionaries.****

*No. 1: The Internet of Things*****

We have passed the threshold where more things are connected to the
Internet than people. The transition to
IPv6<http://www.networkworld.com/news/2009/073009-ipv6-guide.html>also
supports seemingly limitless connectivity. Cisco IBSG predicts the
number of Internet-connected things will reach 50 billion by 2020, which
equates to more than six devices for every person on Earth. Many of us in
the developed world already have three or more full-time devices connected
to the Internet when factoring in PCs,
smartphones<http://www.networkworld.com/slideshows/2010/061510-smartphone-history.html>,
tablets, television devices and the like. Next up are sensor networks,
using low-power sensors that "collect, transmit, analyze and distribute
data on a massive scale," says Evans.****

Such sensors, based on standards like Zigbee, 6LoWPAN and Z-wave, are
currently being used in both predictable and surprising ways. Zigbee is
being embedded in smart appliances and smart meters. 6LoWPAN (over IPv6) is
used by Vint Cerf for his wine cellar climate-monitoring
system<http://www.networkworld.com/news/2011/021811-vint-cerf-ipv7.html>.
Z-Wave is the basis for Verizon's smart home automation service. But more
creative uses are emerging, too. Sparked, a Dutch startup, implants sensors
in the ears of cattle to monitor cows' health and whereabouts. Sensors are
being embedded in shoes, medicine like asthma inhalers, and medical
exploratory surgery devices. There's even a tree in ****Sweden**** wired
with sensors that tweets its mood and thoughts, with a bit of translation
help from an interpretive engine developed by Ericsson (@connectedtree or
#ectree).****

*No. 2: Not just Big Data, but a zettaflood*****

About 5 exabytes of unique information were created in 2008. That's 1
billion DVDs. Fast forward three years and we are creating 1.2 zettabytes,
with one zettabyte equal to 1,024 exabytes. "This is the same as every
person on Earth tweeting for 100 years, or 125 million years of your
favorite one-hour TV show," says Evans. Our love of high-definition video
accounts for much of the increase. By Cisco's count, 91% of Internet data
in 2015 will be video.****

VISUALIZE: Volume of data darn near indescribable ... without the
iPad<http://www.networkworld.com/community/blog/volume-data-darn-near-indescribable-without-i>
****

Much of Cisco's development focus (not to mention its marketing) preaches
that the so-called "zettaflood" will require vastly improved networks to
move more data, and not drop the ball (or the packets) of our beloved video.
****

*No. 3: Wisdom of the cloud*****

Much of the zettaflood of data will be stored in the cloud. Certainly, most
of it is being accessed by the cloud, rather than only on private networks.
By 2020, one-third of all data will live in or pass through the cloud,
Cisco predicts. Global cloud services revenue will jump 20% per year, and
IT spending on innovation and cloud
computing<http://www.networkworld.com/supp/2009/ndc3/051809-cloud-faq.html>could
top $1 trillion by 2014. That's enough to create the next Google.
"Already, the cloud is powerful enough to help us communicate through
real-time language translation, increase our knowledge from access to
powerful supercomputers such as Wolfram Alpha, and improve our health using
computing platforms like IBM's
Watson<http://www.networkworld.com/news/2011/021411-ibm-watson.html>in
new ways," says Evans. "We're able to communicate in much richer
ways."
****

In addition to video, the computing power of the cloud delivered to
endpoint devices changes our ability to communicate with things like
real-time translation. Right now, the voice search on an
Android<http://www.networkworld.com/news/2010/110910-google-android-useful-resources-smartphones.html>phone
sends the query to the Google cloud to decipher and return results.
"We'll see more intelligence built into communication. Things like
contextual and location-based information."****

With an always-connected device, the network can be more granular with
presence information, tapping into a personal sensor to know that a
person's asleep, and route an incoming call to voicemail. Or knowing that
person is traveling at 60 mph in a car, and that this is not the time for a
video call. (Of course, by then, we'll probably all be using driverless
Google cars, and be free to chat while our cars drive us around.)****

*No. 4: The next 'Net*****

Evans talks about his home as an example of the speed of network
improvements. Network performance has increased by 170,000 times since
1990, when he had just one telnet connection.****

Today, Evans has 38 always-on connections and more than 50Mbps of
bandwidth, enough for telepresence, streaming movies and online games at
the same time. Over the next 10 years, Evans expects the speed to his home
to increase by 3 million times.****

While most of the industry is focused on 40G and 100G, whole new forms of
networks are also being created. Vint Cerf discusses the new protocols
needed to build an interplanetary
network<http://www.networkworld.com/news/2011/021811-cerf-interplanetary-internet.html>,
which can send data vast distances without being disturbed by latency.
Evans notes that multiterabit networks using lasers are being explored. And
early work is happening on a concept called "quantum networking," based on
quantum physics. This involves "quantum entanglement" in which two
particles are entangled after which they can be separated by any distance,
and when one is changed, the other is also instantly changed. Production
quantum networks are likely decades in the future.****

*No. 5: The world gets smaller*****

With always-on connectivity, social networking has the power to change
cultures, as we saw with the Egyptian
Revolution<http://www.networkworld.com/news/2011/012811-egypts-internet-block-aims-at.html>,
which led to the Arab Spring. Social influences will continue to move
rapidly between cultures.****

A smaller world also means faster information dissemination. "Tweets from
people in Japan during the recent
earthquake<http://www.networkworld.com/news/2011/031411-foreigners-in-japan-rely-on.html>were
sent to followers even before the U.S. Geological Survey could issue
its official tsunami warning to **Alaska**, **Washington**, **Oregon** and *
***California****," says Evans.****

The capture, dissemination and consumption of events are going from "near
time" to "real time." This in turn will drive more rapid influence among
cultures.****

*No. 6: The power of power*****

The human population also continues to grow, and Evans estimates that a
city with 1 million inhabitants will be built every month over the next two
decades. More efficient methods to power those cities are becoming a
necessity, particularly solar energy.****

"Solar alone can meet our energy needs. In fact, to address today's global
demand for energy, 25 solar super sites -- each consisting of 36 square
miles -- could be erected. Compare this to the 170,000 square kilometers of
forest area destroyed each year," says Evans. Such a solar farm could be
completed in just three years.****

TRYING: Energy Dept. spends $2B to double US concentrated solar power
capacity<http://www.networkworld.com/community/blog/energy-dept-spends-2b-double-us-concentrated->
****

Technologies to make this more economically pragmatic are on their way. In
June, ****Oregon** **State** **University**** researchers showed off a
novel, relatively affordable, low-impact method to "print" solar cells
using an inkjet printer.****

*No. 7: Tea. Earl Grey. Hot*****

More items will move from physical to virtual. Today, we download e-books
and movies, rather than bound books and DVDs. A technology called 3D
printing will allow us to instantly manufacture any physical item, from
food to bicycles, using printer technology. This is strikingly like the
replicator concept from "Star Trek."****

"3D printing, or additive manufacturing, is the process of joining
materials to make objects from 3D model data, usually layer upon layer,"
says Evans.****

Already, things ranging from toys to cars to living structures are being
printed and because the process is done by adding layers of materials on
top of one another, they are printed fully assembled and decorated, too.****

LEGAL? 3D printing may bring legal challenges, group
says<http://www.networkworld.com/news/2010/111010-3d-printing-may-bring-legal.html>
****

In the not-too-distant future, we will be able to print human organs," says
Evans. In March, Dr. Anthony Atala from the Wake Forest Institute for
Regenerative Medicine printed a proof-of-concept kidney mold onstage at
TED. It was not living tissue, but the point was well made even so.****

*Trend 8: Another family tree*****

Virtual humans, both physical (robots) and online avatars will be added to
the workforce. "Already, animated characters can recognize speech, convert
text to speech, and have knowledge of previous encounters," says Evans.****

By 2020, robots will be physically superior to humans. IBM's Blue Brain
project, for instance, is a 10-year mission to create a human brain using
hardware and software. "They believe that within a decade they'll start to
see consciousness emerge with this brain," Evans says.****

By 2025, the robot population will surpass the number of humans in the
developed world. By 2032, robots will be mentally superior to humans. And
by 2035, robots could completely replace humans in the workforce.****

Beyond that, we'll see the creation of sophisticated avatars. Evans points
to IBM's Watson as a template for the virtual human. Watson was able to
answer a question by returning a single, accurate result. A patient may use
a virtual machine instead of a WebMD search. Or hospitals can augment
patient care with virtual machines.****

Between now and then, augmented reality and gesture-based computing will
enter our classrooms, medical facilities and communications, and transform
them as well. "Already, machine vision enables users to take a picture of a
Sudoku puzzle with their smartphone and have it solved almost immediately,"
he notes.****

*No. 9: Yes, there's a cure for that*****

"We think nothing of using pacemakers," Evans points out. In the next 10
years, he believes medical technologies will grow vastly more sophisticated
as computing power becomes available in smaller forms. Devices such as
nanobots and the ability to grow replacement organs from our own tissues
will be the norm. "The ultimate integration may be brain-machine interfaces
that eventually allow people with spinal cord injuries to live normal
lives," he says.****

Today we have mind-controlled video games and wheelchairs, software by
Intel that can scan the brain and tell what you are thinking and tools that
can actually predict what you are going to do before you do it.****

*No. 10: Humans or Borg?*****

According to Stephen Hawking, "Humans are entering a stage of self-designed
evolution." Taking the medical technology idea to the next level, healthy
humans will be given the tools to augment themselves. Evans offers the
following examples:****

July 2009 -- Spanish researchers discover substance for photographic memory.
****

October 2009 -- Italian and Swedish scientists develop the first artificial
hand with feeling.****

March 2010 -- Retina implants restore vision to blind patients.****

June 2011 -- Texas Heart Institute develops a "spinning" heart with no
pulse, no clogs and no breakdowns.****

While the early use of these technologies will be to repair unhealthy
tissue or fix the consequences of brain injury, eventually designer
enhancements will be available to all.****

Ultimately, humans will use so much technology to mend, improve or enhance
our bodies, that we will become the Borg. Futurist Ray Kurzweil is
pioneering this idea with a concept he calls singularity, the point at
which man and machine merge and become a new species. (Kurzweil says this
will happen by 2054). Evans is not convinced about singularity,
particularly in Kurzweil's time frame. Evans sits on the **Singularity** **
University** in ****Mountain View**** and finds the data plausible, and
agrees that we are on that trajectory.****

Julie Bort is the editor of Network World's Cisco Subnet community. She
also writes the Odds and Ends blog for Cisco Subnet and the Microsoft
Update blog for Microsoft Subnet and Source Seeker for the Open Source
Subnet community sites. Follow Bort on Twitter @Julie188.****

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